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Ethical Skeptic ☀
Trade Tech Ops & National Infrastructure Strategist / Postgrad Systems Sci & Eng / US Naval Intelligence / CEO / ENTX / Ethical philosophy of agency & science
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Ethical Skeptic ☀ Aug 10
Replying to @allisora
Yeah, and there is no way my numbers are correct. But there are beginning to be some studies which are estimating this range and even more than this. I stay conservative in these estimates. But they are certainly not 'zero' as the media make it out.
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Ethical Skeptic ☀ Aug 10
Coronavirus bobble head night. 😄
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Ethical Skeptic ☀ Aug 10
Replying to @AUTweep @familynomad
Yes, we won't know this until we see the shape of the 'pull forward' dip which occurs after the peak (if any). That is one of the next steps. Keen catch.
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Ethical Skeptic ☀ Aug 10
It's not about formulas, graphs, academic heuristics or statistics. This is not an exam. It is about perceiving systems, asymmetry, constraints, consilience, human agency, incremental dynamics & faithfully watching them all over time. Producing a living symphony, not a 'result'.
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Ethical Skeptic ☀ Aug 10
Replying to @chasewhitney_re
Yes, each Friday we update that. We are barely above the threshold as of July 25th - with a possible small peak on Aug 3rd - which means we are probably below it as of Aug 10.
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Ethical Skeptic ☀ Aug 10
Replying to @allisora
Yes, it is an agreement between bottom up estimates from industry published data on the causes of lockdown related death (right), when matched against the excess death data for the 5 major causes of mortality in the CDC Wonder database (left).
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Ethical Skeptic ☀ Aug 10
Replying to @AUTweep @familynomad
By the CDC Wonder data (left)... this shows the primary cause of death of the 'died with' group - so that group can be segregated from the whole death group (on right).
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Ethical Skeptic ☀ Aug 10
Replying to @allisora
Aug 3 is the latitude case peak of 7/15 plus 19 days. We hope to see this peak in, first the daily state sitrep reports (orange bars, albeit clouded by legacy deaths) and then second, in the CDC excess all-cause mortality (yellow line) data once that comes in, in a couple weeks.
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Ethical Skeptic ☀ Aug 10
We do not know 100% that they will. We are hoping that someone of courage draws the line and refuses to allow it. However, we see the unified rhetoric of the media ramping up, preparing the right terminology to allow for their inclusion, without the public perceiving the crime.
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Ethical Skeptic ☀ Aug 10
Replying to @Rebelfan_20
Have season Conference-only games No long road games Scan for temps at gate Select attending fans by ticket number for random sample followup after 14 days of first game - publish results by conference
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Ethical Skeptic ☀ Aug 10
Sometimes it takes more courage to face down virtue fakers, than it does to undertake the path of courage itself.
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Ethical Skeptic ☀ Aug 10
This is called a virtue paradox. If we undertake a course we instinctually know to be right - but don't possess the full set of absolute proof, we can be abused by virtue signalers who will cite any negative aspect of doing what is right, as evidence that it was the wrong choice.
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Ethical Skeptic ☀ Aug 10
Replying to @familynomad
Actually 57 k... the sum of those who died from the lockdown itself, and a reasonable estimate of actual covid deaths we just did not detect yet (in green below). So 15,220 are probably valid suspected fatalities. But reporting the other 41,833 constitutes a human rights crime.
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Ethical Skeptic ☀ Aug 10
So far we continue to confirm a 3 Aug actual fatality peak as estimated. But LDL numbers & media obfuscate this vital information from being given to the at-risk public. We now will see if they have the temerity to start reporting lockdown deaths as 'Covid Caused or Suspected'.
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Ethical Skeptic ☀ Aug 10
Cases are dropping almost too fast. Of course this is weekend effect. But within a week or so, we should be back to June levels of actual new cases (not the BS reported each day). Actual deaths will follow this curve, but reported deaths have a 50 k reserve from which to draw.
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Ethical Skeptic ☀ Aug 10
ICU drop was pretty strong the last two days in particular. This stat does not bear a weekend effect. Death rate was 65% lower, the last time we had this ICU occupancy. So get ready for a constant drum beat of 'long-covid', 'even one death is too many' and 'body counts'.
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Ethical Skeptic ☀ Aug 10
Encouraging news all across the board this week. Aggressive 3-day drop in hospital census and estimated admissions. Despite backlog stuffing of the numbers in some states, we are able to filter that BS out and observe the actual pace of decline here.
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Ethical Skeptic ☀ Aug 10
Replying to @ryanmagnon
You are citing the definition of a formal fallacy. AF is an informal fallacy, and as such bears the weakness you cite, correct. It does not mean that the person using it is necessarily 'wrong'. Just means they might no be using a full spectrum of self awareness. A warning flag.
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Ethical Skeptic ☀ Aug 10
Replying to @restless256
Cool, given this implied background you should have already observed that I present every single reference and calculation you need in order to re-recreate my work. Several have done this. I don't indulge lazy agenda-trolls. If the ad hominem fits, wear it.
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Ethical Skeptic ☀ Aug 10
Replying to @j_maymo @restless256
A note: if you are going to misrepresent, yourself, me, the data, the circumstance. You are going to get blocked.
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