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Eric Blake πŸŒ€
NHC scientist, CSU/ULM alum, vegan runner, Tweets weather hurricanes El NiΓ±o/La NiΓ±a climate pets politics frogs-My personal opinions only, NOT my employer's!
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Eric Blake πŸŒ€ 3h
Pretty glorious thunderstorm complex north of Kansas City- only clouds in the sky!
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Eric Blake πŸŒ€ 3h
Some social science work I’ve see has suggested that people are pretty skeptical of seasonal forecasts in general, so the effects aren’t particularly significant on hurricane prep
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Eric Blake πŸŒ€ 6h
Definitely most centered at a highly skilled end user. All of the noaa forecasts emphasize that it only takes one, and to prepare regardless of the seasonal forecast
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Eric Blake πŸŒ€ 6h
Replying to @LenoirChar
I had it, I just can’t remember lol
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Eric Blake πŸŒ€ 6h
Everything cross correlates at .6-.8
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Eric Blake πŸŒ€ 6h
Replying to @JBElsner @SarahStrazzo
Thanks for this. An important factor to consider
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Eric Blake πŸŒ€ retweeted
Rep. Katie Porter 10h
I asked about REOs - a basic term related to foreclosure - at a hearing today. He thought I was referring to a chocolate sandwich cookie. No, really.
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Eric Blake πŸŒ€ 6h
And the upper tercile. The smallest ranges might be in the lower tercile, but then again in 2013 we had 14 storms but a very low ACE
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Eric Blake πŸŒ€ 6h
I mean, we have seen super high ACE years like 2004 with not many storms, and a bonkers number of storms in 2005, with not terribly different ACE values. In the upper textile, the ranges do get quite large
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Eric Blake πŸŒ€ 6h
Gotta say I will definitely try one New Coke just for the good ole days
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Eric Blake πŸŒ€ 6h
One problem all of the GCMs struggle with is resolution, so the hurricane-like vortices aren’t strong enough. Scaling those to match upper-end intensities aren’t easy
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Eric Blake πŸŒ€ 6h
It is the nature of the beast that similar climate conditions can produce different seasons (quality vs quantity, for instance)
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Eric Blake πŸŒ€ 6h
Named storms are a pretty useless way of categorizing a season, in general. On this specific UKMET forecast- suggesting a 1 SD range of 2-4 MH implies strongly favoring something near average.
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Eric Blake πŸŒ€ retweeted
Alex Lamers May 20
Replying to @AlexJLamers
Water rescues beginning to be reported in parts of Oklahoma around 8pm local time.
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Eric Blake πŸŒ€ May 20
Always amazing to see the high-resolution radar of tornadoes and the similarities to - neat!
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Eric Blake πŸŒ€ retweeted
National Hurricane Center May 20
Subtropical Storm has formed over the western Atlantic. While some slight strengthening is possible tonight, the system is forecast to dissipate by Wednesday while it moves to the southwest or south of Bermuda. More info at
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Eric Blake πŸŒ€ retweeted
National Hurricane Center May 20
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda has become a subtropical storm. NHC will initiate advisories on Subtropical Storm Andrea by 6:30 pm EDT. More:
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Eric Blake πŸŒ€ May 20
Replying to @TropicalTidbits
Tweet views low unless you tag it as lol
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Eric Blake πŸŒ€ May 20
Replying to @MJVentrice
Interesting. I’ve seen it mentioned for snowstorms before in the SE but not severe weather. Is it causal or usually there?
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Eric Blake πŸŒ€ May 20
Replying to @MJVentrice
I struggle with CCKWs affecting weather north of 30 (how?). You tell me MJO I understand, but CCKWs... the poleward extent is so limited that out of the tropics is tough
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