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Dan Tsubouchi
Chief Market Strategist, SAF Group, Energy Tidbits memo/blogs at . On LinkedIn
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Dan Tsubouchi 3h
EIA estimates US shale/tight oil for July at 8.520 mmb/d. Looks fine at +1.222 mmb/d YoY, but only +0.295 mmb/d for YTD July 31/19. Expect EIA will lower its 2019 US oil growth forecast, currently +1.17 mmb/d for Lower 48 (1.36 mmb/d total US).
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Dan Tsubouchi 8h
Want to watch the relatively small (410 hectares) Lac La Biche wildfire (SE of Fort McMurray) as it is still out of control. Hope Tues forecast 40% precipitation is accurate, but 22 kph winds from the south is wrong. Fire is close to Long Lake (~72,000 b/d capacity) SAGD.
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Dan Tsubouchi 19h
Replying to @Energy_Tidbits
Reality of governing hits new Danish govt saying "There is a difference whether you sit in the government offices or not”. Moving from no way to 5.6 bcf/d Nord Stream 2 to need to see foreign ministry work ie potential re-evaluation. Thx GoogleTranslate.
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Dan Tsubouchi 19h
Bearish IEA comments today OPEC+ “face a major challenge in balancing the oil market and keeping the oil price at the kind of level which is suitable for their interests”. Re IEA 1st look at 2020 supply/demand, see SAF June 16, 2019 Energy Tidbits
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Dan Tsubouchi Jun 16
Min. McKenna (45 sec mark) twice says TMX has to be done in the right way. Hope its so Cdns know it will be done right if Liberals approve and move right away to “full construction”. If not, is she pointing to more to do’s pre full construction?
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Dan Tsubouchi Jun 16
Our weekly SAF June 16, 2019 Energy Tidbits memo was just posted our SAF Group website. This 28-pg energy research piece expands covers many more items than my tweets.
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Dan Tsubouchi Jun 16
Trump, Centcom, MBS all say don’t want war with Iran. Wonder if that incl cyber? story is US cyber plan re Russia, surely US has cyber plan re Iran? Iran has cyber capability, should we be worried about fall out on oil infra/supply?
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Dan Tsubouchi Jun 16
Must read Saudi MBS interview – “does not want a war in the region”, blames Iran not its surrogates, for tanker attacks, not giving up its fight vs Houthis, committed to Aramco IPO “between 2020 and the beginning of 2021”, many more tidbits. .
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Dan Tsubouchi Jun 14
IEA OMR. 2019 fits weak demand narrative, 2019 demand growth lowered by 0.1 mmb/d to +1.2 mmb/d YoY. IEA 1st look at 2020 shows need for OPEC+ to continue/even increase cuts. In 2020, non-OPEC supply growth +2.3 mmb/d vs demand growth +1.4 mmb/d
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Dan Tsubouchi Jun 13
Excellent CAPP’“Crude Oil Forecast, Markets and Transportation” report - great data, charts & maps. Even w/ industry challenges, CAPP’s new oil forecast is a little higher this yr, a key factor is liquids rich Montney/Duvernay.
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Dan Tsubouchi Jun 13
Pompeo reportedly saying today’s tanker attack was a “torpedo attack”. Mines are a real risk ,but a torpedo attacks and rocket attacks add that different element of longer distance attack. Iran’s new Jask-2 torpedo reportedly has a range of 19 miles.
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Dan Tsubouchi Jun 13
I am hoping this prediction comes true, be a big plus to Cdn heavy oil
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Dan Tsubouchi Jun 13
No major oil/nat gas takeaways from new El Nino forecast. Reduced El Nino prob for key A/S/O hurricane mths to 55% (was 60%), not a major swing for hurricane odds. Reduced key D/J/F winter mths to 52% prob (was 57%), too early to make a diff for winter.
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Dan Tsubouchi Jun 13
Libya oil news, Haftar’s military move into Ras Lanuf export terminal. Libya NOC warns may have to withdraw workers from terminal ie. risk that 2nd largest Libya oil export terminal 220,000 b/d loading capacity will be shut down.
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Dan Tsubouchi Jun 13
BP Statistical Review of World Energy, good 2018 for nat gas, but SAF blog “BP’s 2018 Natural Gas/LNG Data Reminds That LNG Price Pressures Should Continue In 2020/2021” reminds challenge from 3.6 bcf/d Power of Siberia and 5.3 bcf/d Nord Stream 2
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Dan Tsubouchi retweeted
Raf Sanchez Jun 13
Footage from Iranian state TV shows massive damage to the starboard side of one of the oil tankers
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Dan Tsubouchi Jun 13
Replying to @Energy_Tidbits
Brent is +$2.43/b today, should it be higher? won't tanker owners want to halt tankers at least temporarily until they find out more on the risk? tankers leaving strait of hormuz have pass right by this risk area?
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Dan Tsubouchi retweeted
Eric Nuttall Jun 12
Passing Bill C-69 with all 187 amendments was never in the cards. As sad as it is Trudeau needs something to offer his base in exchange for next week's TMX approval. For me, TMX+Line 3(2021)+KXL (2022?) is good enough until...
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Dan Tsubouchi Jun 13
Replying to @Energy_Tidbits
MEHR news. Iran Foreign Ministry raises suspicion on timing of tanker attacks given Abe is in Iran, FM tweet added “and regards the event in contrast with regional and trans-regional orientations and efforts made to reduce tensions in the region".
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Dan Tsubouchi Jun 13
Do today's tanker attacks add more risk than Fujairah? Location close to Iran coast seems to add rocket/torpedo risk ie. reminds of Houthi rocket attacks on tankers in Red Sea, reinforces a key Strait of Hormuz risk. Location also adds more risk to UAE exports
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