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Bryan Breguet 22 Apr 18
Pollsters aren't concerned with democracy. They are concerned with making money and getting paid. Which is fair and all, but don't even try to tell me models are dangerous for democracy
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Earl Washburn 22 Apr 18
they are if they're no good, like suggesting the Tories will win University-Rosedale!
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Bryan Breguet 22 Apr 18
How about polls missing the Liberals in 2015 by so much they were outside the moe? And made us believe liberals were winning a minority? Is that more or less dangerous than being possibly wrong in one riding?
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Earl Washburn
If you want to talk about 2015, our model predicted more individual ridings correct than every single mathematical model.
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Bryan Breguet 22 Apr 18
So again, not a mathematical model at all? Your wording is confusing. But yes you did in 2015. So kudos.
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Bryan Breguet 22 Apr 18
But you are missing the point here: what is worse for democracy? Missing the winning party by like 4 points or having a model missing some ridings?
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Earl Washburn 22 Apr 18
math did play a part, yes
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Earl Washburn 22 Apr 18
the latter imo
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Bryan Breguet 22 Apr 18
And why is that? A lot more people base their voting decision on polls than on projections
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Earl Washburn 22 Apr 18
elections are based on ridings won not the popular vote
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Bryan Breguet 22 Apr 18
Doesn't answer my point though. It's irrelevant to the point being discussed
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Earl Washburn 22 Apr 18
disagree wholeheartedly
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Bryan Breguet 23 Apr 18
Well this shows how pointless it is to try to have this discussion if you don't even see that you are missing the point.
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Earl Washburn 23 Apr 18
likewise.
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