Twitter | Search | |
Bryan Breguet 22 Apr 18
with the Forum's number, yes. Add the incumbent not running again (correct?) and OLP loses clearly
Reply Retweet Like
Earl Washburn 22 Apr 18
This proves the problem with mathematical models. University-Rosedale is not going PC. Doug Ford finished a distant third there in the mayoral election, and the Tories haven't been a factor there in years.
Reply Retweet Like
Bryan Breguet 22 Apr 18
Even if the PC is at 47% and OLP at 19%? With such a lead, there wouldn't be any safe liberal seat
Reply Retweet Like
Earl Washburn 22 Apr 18
if that's what the polls showed, the riding would flip NDP, not PC. LOOK AT THE MAYORAL RESULTS. Doug Ford is not popular there. Do you know why pollsters hate these models so much? They're disingenuous, and dangerous to democracy.
Reply Retweet Like
Rhea Donsman 22 Apr 18
Municipal ≠ provincial
Reply Retweet Like
Rhea Donsman 22 Apr 18
at 30% ≠ at 50%
Reply Retweet Like
Bryan Breguet 22 Apr 18
Pollsters aren't concerned with democracy. They are concerned with making money and getting paid. Which is fair and all, but don't even try to tell me models are dangerous for democracy
Reply Retweet Like
Earl Washburn 22 Apr 18
they are if they're no good, like suggesting the Tories will win University-Rosedale!
Reply Retweet Like
Bryan Breguet 22 Apr 18
How about polls missing the Liberals in 2015 by so much they were outside the moe? And made us believe liberals were winning a minority? Is that more or less dangerous than being possibly wrong in one riding?
Reply Retweet Like
Earl Washburn
If you want to talk about 2015, our model predicted more individual ridings correct than every single mathematical model.
Reply Retweet Like More
Bryan Breguet 22 Apr 18
But you are missing the point here: what is worse for democracy? Missing the winning party by like 4 points or having a model missing some ridings?
Reply Retweet Like
Earl Washburn 22 Apr 18
the latter imo
Reply Retweet Like
Bryan Breguet 22 Apr 18
So again, not a mathematical model at all? Your wording is confusing. But yes you did in 2015. So kudos.
Reply Retweet Like
Earl Washburn 22 Apr 18
math did play a part, yes
Reply Retweet Like