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Decision Desk HQ
Decision Desk HQ provides fast & accurate election night results, in-depth data, and non-partisan election news and analysis. info@decisiondeskhq.com
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Decision Desk HQ Nov 25
Decision Desk HQ Projects (R) Has Won In CA-21 Race Called At 11-25 11:00 PM EST All Results:
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Decision Desk HQ Nov 25
New at DDHQ: Around The Desk podcast for your holiday weekend: A Look Back At Election Night 2020 Listen to what it was like preparing for one of the most anticipated elections ever and what went into being the first to call the presidential race.
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Decision Desk HQ Nov 23
As a final note, thanks to , , , , , , , and other forecasters for pushing along methodological advances and providing a collegial environment
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Scott Tranter Nov 23
This is the one of the most interesting political forecasting points that will keep people thinking for cycles to come
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Decision Desk HQ Nov 23
Replying to @DecisionDeskHQ
The polling miss was bigger than in 2016 and should not be dismissed. Across Pres swing states, the average error was 5 points. In the Senate, it was 7 points. All overestimating Democrats. Those aren’t numbers that inspire confidence in the public nor can be easily mitigated.
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Decision Desk HQ Nov 23
Replying to @DecisionDeskHQ
Interestingly, if you remove polling from our model we would have done even better! In a structural-only model, our forecast would have been 303 Biden EVs, 49 GOP Senate seats, and 232 Dem House seats. This is a reversal from 2018 where polling significantly helped forecasts.
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Decision Desk HQ Nov 23
Replying to @DecisionDeskHQ
A few house races left to call, but with 430 of 435 determined, we’re sitting at 97% accuracy and 15 “missed” races, roughly matching our 2018 performance (97% accuracy, 14 misses). Our mean prediction was 237 Dem House seats, which is the closest forecast to the expected 222-223
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Decision Desk HQ Nov 23
Replying to @DecisionDeskHQ
On the Senate model: Misses in NC and ME doomed the overall bullishness on Democratic chances of taking the Senate. Tillis led in 2 of the final 100 NC Senate polls we tracked, and won! Still, at 52 mean Dem seats we were middle of the pack.
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Decision Desk HQ Nov 23
Replying to @DecisionDeskHQ
On the presidential model: Biden won as expected. In terms of electoral votes, our model’s mean prediction was 318 EVs- Biden ended up with 306. The other forecasts tended to be a bit higher. As with the other forecasts, we “missed” FL, NC, and ME-2.
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Decision Desk HQ Nov 23
Replying to @DecisionDeskHQ
Some people might prefer different metrics- and we’re looking forward to others slicing this differently! But these are the ones we focused on in 2018, where forecasts tended to be pretty spot on, and we’re going to be consistent this year, when forecasts struggled a bit more.
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Decision Desk HQ Nov 23
Replying to @DecisionDeskHQ
Before we dive in, just a note on the metrics used. We stayed consistent from 2018- we calculated several model metrics and included them in tables. But our focus is on accuracy of individual races (did we “call” it right) and the mean aggregate predictions of our simulations.
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Decision Desk HQ Nov 23
As we did in 2018, we’ve gone back and done a preliminary analysis of the DDHQ/ forecast model’s performance. Our model predicted the vast majority of competitive federal races and came within 12 EVs of the final Electoral College map (1/x)
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Decision Desk HQ Nov 19
NY-22 Election Results Tenney (R): 49.08% (154,086 votes) Brindisi (D): 48.81% (153,230 votes) Estimated: > 99% votes in More results here:
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Decision Desk HQ Nov 18
Decision Desk HQ Projects (D) Has Won In NJ-07 Race Called At 11-18 09:37 PM EST All Results:
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Decision Desk HQ Nov 18
Decision Desk HQ Projects (D) Has Won In NY-18 Race Called At 11-18 09:37 PM EST All Results:
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Decision Desk HQ Nov 18
Decision Desk HQ Projects (R) Has Won In NY-02 Race Called At 11-18 09:36 PM EST All Results:
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Niles Edward Francis Nov 18
NEW from me in : Here are my thoughts on the 2020 election, in about 2,300 words.
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Decision Desk HQ Nov 16
Decision Desk HQ Projects (D) Has Won In NY-03 Race Called At 11-16 08:17 PM EST All Results:
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Deseret News Nov 16
BREAKING: concedes to in close 4th Congressional District race
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Decision Desk HQ Nov 16
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