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Change Research
We polled in twelve House races between Saturday, 10/27 and Monday, 10/29: - 12 districts Trump won by between 8 and 27 points - Mostly districts in the Midwest (IA, IN, KS, MI, OH, WI), plus one each in CO, FL, NY - Districts Trump won by an average of 16+ points.
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Change Research Oct 29
Replying to @ChangePolls
We're going to share numbers from all twelve. We start with races that are a little more R than the 2016 presidential vote Then races (just one) exactly in line with 2016 Then races that are looking a little better for Dems Then races that are looking a LOT better for Dems
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Change Research Oct 29
Replying to @RepDMB
CO-03 (n=485) Scott Tipton (R) 53 Diane Mitsch () (D) 38 Movement: 3 points to R (was Trump+12) CO-03 is one of two districts we polled where the Republican candidate is doing better than Donald Trump did in 2016.
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Change Research Oct 29
Replying to @perrygershon
NY-01 (n=838) Perry Gershon (D) 37 Lee Zeldin (R) 52 Movement: 3 points to R (was Trump+12) The US Senate race in NY-01 is a dead heat, but Zeldin has a clear lead, thanks in large part to 47% favorability, 37% are unfavorable. Taxes quite important in NY-01.
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Change Research Oct 29
Replying to @laurenbaer
FL-18 (n=475) Brian Mast (R) 53 Lauren Baer (D) 44 Movement: none (was Trump+9). This race lines up with 2016 presidential vote. The two statewide Dems are both running ahead of Lauren Baer; environmental issues stand out as especially important in this district.
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Change Research Oct 29
Replying to @Sara4Congress
IL-16 (n=554) Adam Kinzinger (R) 55 Sara Dady (D) 41 Movement: 3 points to D (was Trump+17) JB Pritzker is a couple of points ahead of Bruce Rauner in this district, but Sara Dady trails by double digits.
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Change Research Oct 29
Replying to @jillschill
OH-02 (n=431) Brad Wenstrup (R) 52 Jill Schiller (D) 39 Movement: 3 points to D (was Trump+16) Another district where statewide Dems (in this case both Brown and Cordray) are running even with Republicans in the district, but the Congressional candidate is behind,
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Change Research Oct 29
Replying to @MattLongjohn
MI-06 (n=466) Fred Upton (R) 46 Matt Longjohn (D) 43 Movement: 5 points to D (was Trump+8) Longjohn is running several points ahead of Stabenow in the district, but several points behind Whitmer.
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Change Research Oct 29
Replying to @VoteThornton
IN-05 (n=527) Susan Brooks (R) 50 Dee Thornton (D) 44 Movement: 6 points to D (was Trump+12) Trump is 47% favorable, 48% favorable in a district he won by 12. Donnelly leads in the district by 5.
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Change Research Oct 29
Replying to @MorganForMI
MI-01 (n=574) Jack Bergman (R) 54 Matthew Morgan (D) 42 Movement: 9 points to D (was Trump+21) Whitmer trails by just 3 points in this district.
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Change Research Oct 29
Replying to @DanKohlWI
WI-06 (n=525) Glenn Grothman (R) 50 Dan Kohl (D) 48 Movement: 15 points to D (was Trump+17) In WI-06, even splits: - Trump is 48% favorable, 47% unfavorable - Grothman is 33% favorable, 35% unfavorable - US Senate race, Gov race, and the this race within 2 points.
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Change Research Oct 29
Replying to @PaulDavisKS
KS-02 (n=902) Paul Davis (D) 44 Steve Watkins (R) 45 Movement: 17 points to D (was Trump+18) Polling here lines up with other public polling. Education is the top issue here, and the Governor's race is tied within the district (45-45).
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Change Research Oct 29
Replying to @LizForIndiana
IN-09 (n=541) Trey Hollingsworth (R) 52 Liz Watson (D) 45 Movement: 20 points to D (was Trump+27) A perhaps surprisingly close race. Watson doing better than Donnelly here (he's down 9) and feelings on Trump are mixed (52% favorable, 42% unfavorable).
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Change Research Oct 29
Replying to @Scholten4Iowa
IA-04 (n=631) J.D. Scholten (D) 44 Steve King (R) 45 Movement: 26 points to D (was Trump+27) Trump won IA-04 by 27 points in 2016; King won by 23 points. Trump opinion is divided (51% fav, 46% unfav); opinion toward King is quite negative (38% fav, 48% unfav).
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Change Research Oct 29
Replying to @ChangePolls
Methodology note. Change Research polls online using a patent-pending approach called Bias Correct: unlike other online polls, we don't use panels, so we can poll affordably in small areas. (We were the only pollster with Gillum ahead in FL Dem primary.) info@changeresearch.com
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Robert Hunt Oct 29
Um...Nunez?
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Change Research Oct 29
Here are our numbers on Nunes if you're interested. For
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RichardMyersVol Oct 30
Replying to @ChangePolls
When did your company start conducting polls with your bias correct tech? If 2016 or before did you have Trump winning as well?
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Change Research Oct 30
Replying to @VolMyers
We started in 2017.
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