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Brett House
Deputy Chief Economist at Scotiabank. It's mainly macro. Opinions are my own. Meta bio: . 🏳️‍🌈
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Brett House retweeted
Stephen Wicary 15h
The Bank of Canada couldn't pull off a dovish hike, reports
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Brett House 7h
The ever-suave represents for all men who "run hot".
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Brett House retweeted
Shawn Donnan 10h
Alternative headline: Trump says again what he said before but just not last time...
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Brett House retweeted
Paul Wells 10h
UofT is cancelling differential tuition fees for international PhD students. A big, strategic move. Extraordinary.
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Brett House 8h
Replying to @ArmineYalnizyan
Again, I believe that’s 50 bps of *investment*, not GDP. So 1.5% negative judgment on investment increased to 2.0%, I think.
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Brett House 8h
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Brett House 8h
No worsening in tone from the WH; we are closer to end-March deadline, but WH talked of “flexibility” last week re: Mex elxn. There is WTO complaint & USTR reply, but WTO appellate body potentially paralyzed, not direct threat to NAFTA. 🤷‍♂️
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Brett House 8h
Not really: last week he said he could be flexible and extend negotiations in view of the Mexican elections and that renegotiation > termination. There is no demonstrable worsening in tone.
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Brett House 9h
Replying to @ArmineYalnizyan
A 2% markdown in investment would give us about a 0.2% markdown in GDP (not 2% of GDP).
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Brett House 9h
Unchanged projections apparently reflect offsetting forces: more positive fundamentals neutralized by slightly more negative judgment of 0.2% GDP from alleged increase in NAFTA uncertainty, despite NAFTA not keeping Gov awake, growing INV, the BOS, & more constructive WH words.
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Brett House 12h
Replying to @francesdonald
NAFTA wasn't in the 3 things that keep the Gov awake at night in Dec, WH stance appears to have softened, BOS investment intentions v strong, and yet the risk that NAFTA uncertainty will chill investment now greater? Huh.
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Brett House 13h
Replying to @ArmineYalnizyan
Who's they? Any negative judgment the is imposing on its forecasts can't be more than about 0.2ppts to annual GDP growth. And I haven't seen any modelling from the bank economics departments, think tanks, or others that imply a hit of the scale you mention.
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Brett House 13h
Read: great reference point on .
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Brett House retweeted
Scotiabank Views 14h
takes stock of ’s hawkish 25 bps hike to 1.25% and its warning of more to come.
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Brett House retweeted
Daniel Dale 18h
Canadian Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer speaking to Trump admin officials and others in DC: “On NAFTA, the Canadian Parliament - certainly from the perspective of the government and opposition - is united. ....We’re here to support our government’s efforts.”
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Brett House retweeted
Mx-US Trade 15h
Did you know that US corn exports to Mexico grew over 1,000% since NAFTA?
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Brett House 15h
Where is this supposed chill on business investment? The ’s MPR details the recent rebound in investment and exports growth, and the Business Outlook Survey shows very strong future investment decisions.
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Brett House retweeted
Josh Wingrove 18h
Trump is beginning to see the benefits of Nafta, his agriculture secretary says via
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Brett House retweeted
Paul Vieira 16h
This sounds about right. Holt the Hawk v Rosenberg the Dove
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Brett House retweeted
Scotiabank FX 17h
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