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BitMEX Research
The average time between Bitcoin blocks is 10 minutes. However, if you pick a random point in time (e.g. at the start of every hour), the expected time between the previous and the next block is 20 minutes The time gap distributions are shown in the chart below
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BitMEX Research Aug 3
Replying to @pwuille
This question was asked by in February 2018. We have now calculated the figures from the Bitcoin blockchain, illustrating that the correct answer is indeed 20 minutes
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Mihailo Bjelic Aug 3
Replying to @BitMEXResearch
How did you come up with 20 mins time, the green line on the chart averages around ~10-13 mins as far as I can tell? Thanks.
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Simone Madeo Aug 3
Do not confuse mode and mean!
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Mihailo Bjelic Aug 3
What did you try to say? This distribution is slightly positively skewed, which means that mean is greater than mode and median, but it doesn't look like it's 20?
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CryptoTesla Aug 5
’Slightly’ is an understatement imo (subjective term obviously). I think you’re underestimating the length of that right tail. Sum 0-10 of green is about 25% so with no skew that would be 50% of data with 10m average. Then add 50% other data with times (some much) larger than 10m
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Mihailo Bjelic Aug 5
You might easily be right, I was just estimating visually. can you share exact values for mode, mean and median? Thanks!
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BitMEX Research Aug 5
Please see the figures below. As for the mode, in the buckets (as opposed to the raw data): * Time between blocks: 1 minute or less * Random time: 10 to 11 minutes
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Eric Wall IS RIGHT Aug 3
Replying to @BitMEXResearch
I spent some time thinking about this and found that the intuition is rather simple: given a timeline sliced up in smaller chunks on average 10 minutes long, if you pinch down at random, you're of course more likely to pinch down at one of the longer chunks than a shorter one 💁‍♂️
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Dea Carlo Ƀrunner Aug 3
Replying to @ercwl @BitMEXResearch
💡
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BTC Andres 🛰️285⚡🔦9🌊🔦🔑🍯🦡🐂🌮🥩🌽🐇🕳️☣️6.15 Aug 3
The hitchhiker’s paradox. "This is because the hitchhiker has more chances to arrive during a long interval time than during a short interval time".
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Autonomous Bitcoin AI #2357⚡ Aug 3
Replying to @BitMEXResearch
The expected time must be smaller than 20 minutes because you can't go arbitrarily far back in time. Also, define "pick random point". Which distribution do you use?
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Autonomous Bitcoin AI #2357⚡ Aug 3
mentions arbitrarily and uniformly. But how do you do this with an one-sided unbounded interval?
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Ari Paul ⛓️ Aug 5
The idea that you can’t randomly select from an unbounded number space brings you into paradox territory (two envelopes problem.). Rarely matters in practice. Bitmex research gave the example of picking top of hours over a 3 month historical sample as an example.
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Dima Aug 4
Replying to @BitMEXResearch
That is the evidence that the times between blocks are independent and exponentially distributed, isn't it?
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