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Bigelow Aerospace
Today, we were notified by the US Air Force that there is a 5.6% chance that Genesis II will collide with dead Russian satellite Cosmos 1300 in 15 hours. Although this is a relatively low probability, it brings to light that low Earth orbit is becoming increasingly more littered.
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Bigelow Aerospace Sep 17
Replying to @BigelowSpace
Future habitable space stations will face this reality and danger. This proliferation, if not controlled in number, could become very dangerous to human life in low Earth orbit.
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Bigelow Aerospace Sep 17
Replying to @BigelowSpace
Anything we launch from here on out will have prop. capability. B330 has two dissimilar propulsion units, more than capable of performing end of life maneuvers. Destinations are not the future worry. They will be few and far between compared to the number of satellites.
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Bigelow Aerospace Sep 17
Replying to @BigelowSpace
Genesis I & II EOL decommissioning plan is to burn up on re-entry into the atmosphere. This situation is one example why what is launched into space is so important to our space future.
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Bigelow Aerospace Sep 18
Replying to @BigelowSpace
Per the Air Force, there was no collision between Genesis II and Cosmos 1300.
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Gio Pagliari πŸš—βœˆοΈπŸš€πŸŒπŸŒžπŸ”­πŸ“ˆπŸ“Š Sep 18
Replying to @BigelowSpace
Pass at 200m distance at 17000km/h
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Jorn Lokken Sep 17
Replying to @BigelowSpace @SpaceX
That's a 1 in 20 chance, and people where freaking out when didn't make a big deal of a 1 in 50.000 chance of their colliding...
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Nathan Sep 17
That was the initial estimate. Later estimates had odds way higher.
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Dark Energy Sep 17
The later estimates before the correction made by Aeolus still gave 1 in 1000 which is high by collision standards. The 5.6% here is like VERY HIGH in terms of collision probability. I wouldn't be surprised if both end up colliding. Somehow Bigelow says it is low .-.
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Michael Sep 17
As above... so below.
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Tom Walkinshaw Sep 17
Replying to @BigelowSpace
why not deorbit your old hardware?
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Dennis Wingo Sep 17
Replying to @tomwalki @BigelowSpace
Expensive
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starchy Sep 18
Externalities: someone else can pay the price.
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Rob Davidoff Sep 17
Replying to @BigelowSpace @nyrath
This is really not good. Neither of these spacecraft has had the ability to maneuver in the last decade, so all we're able to do is roll the dice and hope they miss. 94.4% is good odds...but then again so is the chance of not crit-failing on d20. Cross your fingers...
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Matt Ries Sep 17
Replying to @BigelowSpace
Is Genesis II still able to maneuver?
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Doug DV Sep 17
Replying to @mattries @BigelowSpace
No, it has been nonfunctional for many years.
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Individual - n! Sep 17
didn't it deorbit last year?
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100% Star Stuff Sep 18
Is… is this a serious question?
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Individual - n! Sep 18
was - Satflare showed Genesis 2 as decayed about a year ago. i've emailed the admin there to update. lesson learned about Satflare.
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Nick Calderon Sep 18
This simple response made me happy and I appreciate the honesty. It gave me a 5.6% increase in hope today, which is VERY HIGH by my standards.
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