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James "Stay In. Make Masks. Test People" Palmer
so according to state media contacts, Beijing genuinely thought they were going to win big in the elections today, to the point of having pre-written the stories
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James "Stay In. Make Masks. Test People" Palmer Nov 24
Replying to @BeijingPalmer
now, of course, it's also *politically impossible* to prepare the 'we lost' story, but they seem to have been really convinced they would need the win ones.
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James "Stay In. Make Masks. Test People" Palmer Nov 24
Replying to @BeijingPalmer
have now heard this from GT, PD, *and* CD folk.
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James "Stay In. Make Masks. Test People" Palmer Nov 24
Replying to @Pinboard
this is funny but also scary on two levels: as points out it backs the 'high on their own supply' theory, and Beijing's most reactionary and nasty measures often come after they've been disappointed over something they thought would work
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James "Stay In. Make Masks. Test People" Palmer Nov 24
Replying to @Pinboard
more details available via DM for those who want to know, don't want to dump my sources in it.
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James "Stay In. Make Masks. Test People" Palmer Nov 24
Replying to @Pinboard
also HK is apparently causing quite serious moral/personal qualms for at least some of the Chinese staff involved in covering it - they might broadly agree with govt case but dislike tone, extremism of it
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James "Stay In. Make Masks. Test People" Palmer Nov 25
Replying to @BeijingPalmer
Wrote this up in full here -
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Jean Valjean Nov 24
Replying to @BeijingPalmer
any thoughts if this "certainty" has any relation to the videos and allegations of vote-buying that have been leveled against many pro-gov candidates?
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James "Stay In. Make Masks. Test People" Palmer Nov 24
Replying to @synthgrizzly
I don't think so - it seems to have been just massive overconfidence and a real conviction that ordinary Hong Kongers had been turned off by the violence and therefore backed Beijing.
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Pinboard 😷 Nov 24
Replying to @BeijingPalmer
This supports the terrifying theory that they're getting fed back their own propaganda through private intelligence channels
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Liberate Hong Kong Nov 24
This has been an issue with the Liason Office for years. It seems to ceaselessly relay inaccurate, if not incorrect, information (or just information they think the top brass wants to hear) as opposed to the actual state of affairs.
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