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Annie Duke
Speaker/writer/student of decision science. Author of . I used to play poker. Navigating uncertainty. Less “no.” More “I don’t know.”
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Annie Duke Jul 17
Replying to @saurshan
Exactly!  That’s the cost of uncertainty! You have to pay the extra time to hedge against the worst case.
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Morgan Housel Jul 16
Writing a very long piece on the psychology of prediction. Not confident when it'll be done.
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Annie Duke Jul 16
Commute time calculator for the NYC subway which shows the variability in commute times. Great demonstration of the cost of uncertainty. You have to protect against the worst end of the distribution which costs time.
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Annie Duke Jul 16
Replying to @madintangibles
Had a great time with this one! Thanks!
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Michael Palmer Jul 15
Fun show topic and an amazing guest on this week's episode of Trending in Education. Thanks again to for the time and engagement. If you're "thinking in bets" about whether to listen or not, tuning in is a
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Annie Duke Jul 16
Replying to @tmmteo
Glad you enjoyed it! :) Thank you for reading!
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Annie Duke Jul 10
Replying to @TrendingInEd
Such a fun convo! Can’t wait for it to come out :)
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Annie Duke Jul 10
I obviously am a fan of the decision skills poker trains :)
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Annie Duke Jul 9
Replying to @kadavy
Thanks for the shout out!
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David Kadavy Jul 9
When you make a tough decision, and it doesn't turn out as you had hoped, it doesn't mean you made a bad decision. When it does turn out as you had hoped, it doesn't mean you made a good decision. /
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Annie Duke Jul 9
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Annie Duke Jul 3
“Serendipity can masquerade as skill, and that will always be the case because the thrill of thinking you’re special and will continue being special is more powerful than the cold reality of statistics.”
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Annie Duke Jul 1
Had a great time talking with , who had great questions that I hadn't heard before – including casting Thinking in Bets as an “attitudinal” shift in decision-making. Check out the to hear our conversation.
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Annie Duke Jul 1
Loved this convo with . Covered lots of new ground. Peter lets the conversation meander in the most wonderful and surprising ways. We even got to talk archery of all things!!
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Annie Duke Jul 1
So good!
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Annie Duke Jun 29
Bandwagon effect + Signaling + Use of proxies to decide what is true + Confirmation Bias = 30,000 tweets about an article that was only viewed 300 times.
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How I Decide Jun 28
Happy Friday! Please enjoy this wonderful drawing done by our very talented intern, Nelly. Who knew could be so pretty??
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Jay Van Bavel Jun 28
People think lies are OK if they seem plausible. Counterfactual Thoughts Reduce Condemnation of Falsehoods and Increase Political
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Jamie Catherwood Jun 26
Replying to @movement_cap
This would NEVER have happened without . Seriously. He did 99% of the website. Adam is a legend. He DM'd me a few months ago after seeing me mention my terrible website skills. He's one hell of a smart/kind guy, and clearly makes a KILLER website. Thank you, Adam!
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Gurwinder Jun 25
Those who win rarely examine why they won, but those who lose often reflect deeply on their loss, so you’ll often obtain the best advice about how to succeed at something not from someone who actually succeeded at it, but someone who failed at it.
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