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Annie Duke
Speaker/writer/student of decision science. Author of . I used to play poker. Navigating uncertainty. Less “no.” More “I don’t know.”
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Annie Duke 6h
I agree. We are implicitly predicting all the time. Making that explicit improves our forecasts. And a huge benefit of explicitly viewing any decision as a forecast is it makes you hungry for the outside view: more information, others’ opinions, base rates etc.
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Annie Duke 19h
I address this in the book I am working on. Will DM you when I have something on the page!
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Annie Duke Apr 22
Replying to @StewartalsopIII
Loved the conversation! Thanks for having me on. :)
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Annie Duke Apr 21
I just became a Cubs fan.
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Annie Duke Apr 20
A trick that works for me is to read what I wrote out loud. My mind doesn’t fill in the gaps as much that way.
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Annie Duke Apr 20
Newest from my sister, Vintage Katy: Sure, as a woman bring your whole self to work, just hide all the female parts. Oh, and also the parts that are old. Oh, and also all the other parts. But the good news is: you have a job.
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Annie Duke Apr 20
Have you read The Model Thinker or Behave? Both amazing!
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Gurwinder Apr 18
The problem with creating a utopia is that not everyone’s idea of utopia is the same.
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Annie Duke Apr 18
“Everyone has to believe something and in the right circumstances they’ll believe anything.” on intersection btwn stakes (how much you want/need something to be true) & # of options in how willing you are to believe. Excellent as always.
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Annie Duke Apr 18
Haha!! Love that!
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Annie Duke Apr 18
Replying to @worrellscott70
The stat is missing the denominator. There are orders of magnitude more human-mosquito encounters than human-shark encounters. You needed to know chance of death *given* encounter. Raw numbers meaningless. Sharks are more dangerous once you do it that way.
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Annie Duke Apr 18
. Biggest pie I’ve ever seen!
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Annie Duke Apr 17
Replying to @trengriffin
I’d bet your side.
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Annie Duke Apr 17
Replying to @AnnieDuke
➡️ [original tweet]
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Annie Duke Apr 17
Gates tweets a basic probability error. Maybe it was a mistake or maybe he did this on purpose to create a viral tweet to promote awareness around mosquitoes. What do you think?
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Annie Duke Apr 17
Thank you for the shout out. Flattered :)
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Jay Van Bavel Apr 17
This is a really important finding: Once you set group membership into motion, it can be hard to unwind ingroup bias - even if people know it is arbitrary. As Marilynn Brewer used to tell me "Minimal groups are maximal groups". Even young kids have these groupish instincts.
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Barry Ritholtz Apr 16
Kahneman: Happiness is a momentary experience that arises spontaneously and is fleeting. Meanwhile, satisfaction is a long-term feeling, built over time and based on achieving goals and building the kind of life you admire.
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Annie Duke Apr 16
Nice application of resulting to medical diagnoses and outcomes.
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Clay Skipper Apr 11
"One of the startling things that I learned doing the book is that the vast majority of things we believe, we have no reason to be confident of... We know a bunch of things where the only ground for knowledge is what other people think." —
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