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Ames Grawert
Some more thoughts on Heather Mac Donald, lifelong defender of stop-and-frisk, being proven unquestionably wrong in her area of claimed expertise:
Some cop critics have drawn the wrong lessons from a recent drop in homicides in NYC.
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Ames Grawert Jan 3
Replying to @AmesCG
Back in 2013, Heather Mac Donald regularly predicted fire-and-brimstone should NYC end its "stop and frisk" program ("SQF"), implying at one point that ending SQF could mean kids "sleeping in bathtubs to avoid stray bullets"
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Ames Grawert Jan 3
Replying to @AmesCG
Ending SQF, she continued on a National Review podcast, "is going to destroy this city’s economic vitality" and "fall hardest on the many law abiding members of the inner city, who have been given, finally, a lifeline out of fear." (Can't find the link.)
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Ames Grawert Jan 3
Replying to @AmesCG
A writer summarized her thesis as follows: “End stop-and-frisk, she [Mac Donald] says, and prepare to see the murder rate in New York climb once again.” Let's see how that prediction fared.
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Ames Grawert Jan 3
Replying to @AmesCG
SQF started to wind down in 2011, ultimately "ending" in 2013. That year, Mayor de Blasio won the mayoralty on a pledge to end SQF, and a federal judge ruled it unconstitutional as implemented.
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Ames Grawert Jan 3
Replying to @NYCLU
As a result, according to , stops fell from 686,000 (2011) to 192,000 (2013), then 46,000 the next year -- a drop of more than 90 percent from the program's peak.
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Ames Grawert Jan 3
Replying to @AmesCG
The staggering drop in SQF "stops" means Mac Donald's claim became a **testable prediction** in the early 2010s. She staked her reputation on something that can now be judged not on the cogency of her arguments, but on whether she was right. She was demonstrably wrong.
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Ames Grawert Jan 3
Replying to @AmesCG
Stops and crime fell in tandem after 2011, and continue to do so today. NYC's violent crime rate is down 17 percent since 2011 (by our estimates).
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Ames Grawert Jan 3
Replying to @AmesCG
Even as the city grew -- and stops continued to plummet -- there were more than 200 fewer murders in 2017 than in 2011.
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Ames Grawert Jan 3
Replying to @AmesCG
Did stop and frisk lead to NYC's crime decline? Who knows! But ending it didn't send the city back to the 1970s, which was Mac Donald's explicit claim.
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Ames Grawert Jan 3
Replying to @AmesCG
Even in the Trump Era, being so clearly wrong on a matter of public record should have some consequence for her credibility. Fittingly, you can sense the desperation in her latest op-ed, which takes a shot at defending her indefensible record:
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Ames Grawert Jan 3
Replying to @WesleyLowery
Others have picked apart the attempt. From , the racial overtones that've always lurked behind Mac Donald's work become explicit in this last gasp, as he explains here:
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Ames Grawert Jan 3
Replying to @AmesCG
Mac Donald's factual claims about New York gentrification, and its effects on neighborhood racial composition and crime, also appear wrong:
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Ames Grawert Jan 3
Replying to @AmesCG
And her lingering defense of stop-and-frisk -- that the National Academy of Sciences says "proactive policing" works -- is also wrong. The report she cites noted SQF as a TYPE of "proactive policing," yes, but a questionably effective variant:
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Ames Grawert Jan 3
Replying to @AmesCG
The report also disclaimed "broken windows policing" -- another Mac Donald favorite -- as ineffective, a point that she deliberately elides
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Ames Grawert Jan 3
Replying to @AmesCG
Here's what her terrible oped means: Mac Donald's signature policy solution exploded before her eyes, and she's trying to distract you from it.
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Ames Grawert Jan 3
Replying to @AmesCG
She shouldn't be allowed to succeed. It's past time we stop taking advice from people who deal in platitudes ("War on Cops") and ignore the results of their actions.
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Ames Grawert Jan 3
Replying to @AmesCG
Mac Donald staked her reputation on an inflammatory claim that wound up being false. Don't let her forget that. We should treat her future work, such as it is, with appropriate caution.
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Ames Grawert Jan 3
Replying to @nellpost
OH YES. Pamela Geller? The "ground zero mosque" troll?
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