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@AdamJKucharski | |||||
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Assuming SARS-like variation and Wuhan-like transmission, we estimated that once more than three infections have been introduced into a new location, there is an over 50% chance that an outbreak will occur 7/ pic.twitter.com/YiAplVt43e
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
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31. sij |
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We've updated @cmmid_lshtm analysis of #nCoV2019 transmission to compare with observed cases reported internationally, and estimate potential for outbreaks in new areas (assuming similar transmission to Wuhan). cmmid.github.io/ncov/wuhan_ear… A full pre-print will be online shortly 1/
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
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31. sij |
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Comparing model outputs to observed data, we noticed some countries had more cases with a link to Wuhan had more cases than the model predicted, notably France, USA, and Australia... 2/ pic.twitter.com/k4U536gibe
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
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31. sij |
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This may be result of increased surveillance/detection as awareness of 2019-nCoV grew, suggesting earlier exported cases may have missed; it may also be the result of increased travel out of Wuhan immediately prior to travel restrictions being introduced on 23rd January. 3/
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
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31. sij |
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To assess potential for outbreaks to occur in new places, we used our estimates of the reproduction number to simulate new outbreaks with potential individual-level variation in transmission (i.e. ‘superspreading’ events). 4/
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
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31. sij |
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Such variation increases the fragility of transmission chains, making it less likely that an outbreak will take off following a single introduction nature.com/articles/natur… 5/
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
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31. sij |
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We estimated a single introduction of 2019-nCoV with SARS-like or MERS-like individual-level variation in transmission and Wuhan-like reproduction number would have a 15–25% probability of causing a large outbreak 6/ pic.twitter.com/gLtOKB7P7u
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
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31. sij |
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As always, note that these results depend on some strong assumptions (i.e. transmission in new areas will resemble Wuhan, which it may not). We will continue to update as we get better info 8/8
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Ben Kelly
@kellyreid
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1. velj |
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what defines "an outbreak"? What are we experiencing now?
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Adam Kucharski
@AdamJKucharski
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1. velj |
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This refers to an outbreak in a location where there hasn’t been one yet (e.g. a case is introduced to a new country and leads to ongoing transmission).
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CAPT Groyper, USN (retired)
@MikeBaptist6
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1. velj |
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CC: @HarmlessYardDog
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Bo Li
@mcboli
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2. velj |
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@AdamJKucharski Had a question about the 3 infections in one place. Is it three people in one area at the same time? Or three people at different times in one state/province?
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Sylvia Woolf
@WoolfSylvia
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1. velj |
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Do you have any size range when you say “location?” I’m wondering if by location you mean a country, a state, a city...? And obviously, those vary by size. Sorry if this was clarified and I missed it.
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Sylvia Woolf
@WoolfSylvia
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1. velj |
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And thank you for all the work you and all of the professionals are doing to bring nuanced and responsible attention to this pandemic.
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